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Aldrin monitors product changes, advertising, social media activity, app-store rankings and trading volume across prediction market operators. Patel said the objective is to connect those indicators and show how a product launch supported by advertising affects volume and market share.
Below the largest exchanges, he sees numerous operators competing for relatively small shares of a fast-growing category. “If you get 1% of this market, I think it’s a huge opportunity,” Patel said. “There are a lot of people fighting to get 1%.”
Jefferies estimates exchanges can retain approximately 65% of explicit transaction fees, with the balance distributed across clearinghouses, brokers and liquidity providers. It therefore expects more operators to bring parts of the infrastructure in-house.
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The bill passed at third reading on 13 August after second reading debate and clause-by-clause consideration during the committee stage. The measure has not yet been confirmed as having received presidential assent or entered into force.
If enacted, the bill would amend the Gambling Authority Act (Cap. 19:03). Its provisions would take effect on a date appointed by the responsible minister through an order published in the Government Gazette.
The age proposal was the bill’s most contentious provision. Opposition MPs argued during the committee stage that Botswana should retain the existing minimum age of 21, but the bill passed with Clause 2 intact. The clause would replace references in the Act to “the age of 21” with “the age of 18”.
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Products offered to the public must undergo prior evaluation by a competent body of the Federal Executive Branch, to be defined in regulations. Products classified as high-risk will be subject to specific harm reduction measures. Products with excessive risk may not be offered. This category includes products with outcomes determined by random mechanisms, continuous cycles and variable rewards, such as roulette, slot machines, collision games and simulated virtual sports.
Furthermore, the text maintains obligations for monitoring and institutional cooperation, with the provision of aggregated and anonymised data to the competent authorities. It also provides for actions by the executive branch aimed at monitoring the impacts of betting, training health professionals, updating care protocols and periodically disseminating information on the effects of the activity.
Application providers, digital platforms, hosting services and media intermediaries must remove irregular advertisements and campaigns after notification from the competent authority. The rapporteur’s version requires that the notification clearly and specifically identifies any content deemed irregular and ensures the right to a fair hearing and full defence. Journalistic, academic, parliamentary, artistic and opinion content are expressly protected.
