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A contract purchased on Kalshi cannot simply be transferred and sold on Polymarket, even where the two markets appear to cover the same outcome. Each exchange may also define and resolve its contracts differently, creating an additional risk for firms trading across venues.
Liquidity can consequently become self-reinforcing. Market makers gravitate towards platforms offering dependable technology and substantial order flow, while their participation improves pricing and execution for consumers.
Sahil Patel, founder of competitive intelligence provider Aldrin AI, said those relationships help explain Kalshi’s position.
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With all activity, beyond just football, Crypto.com recorded trading volume of $350 million for the week, figures from The PM Pulse show. The newsletter, which is in partnership with Aldrin Research for monitoring industry trends, indicated that Crypto saw weekly growth of 41%. While Kalshi and Polymarket accounted for more than $15 billion in weekly volume, four others recorded activity of at least $300 million. Buoyed by a popular Sydney Sweeney ad, Novig increased volume by nearly 34% on the week.
Moving forward, prediction markets could see a bump from appearances by several high-profile teams in primetime during Week 2. On Thursday, the Buffalo Bills will make their regular-season debut at Highmark Stadium against the Detroit Lions. Enthusiasm among supporters of the “Bills Mafia” for the opening of the $2.2 billion stadium could pad weekly totals on prediction markets. New York is one of the nation’s largest markets for sports betting and predictions.
The week will conclude with a matchup on Monday Night Football between the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Rams, the putative Super Bowl favourite. On Kalshi, the Rams had a 75% probability to defeat the Giants as of Wednesday afternoon.
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Swipe Games’ immediate ambition is substantial: its current “North Star”, Yashin says, is to reach €600m in bet volume per month.
Yet its longer-term vision stretches beyond simply adding more short videos to the casino floor. Ultimately, Yashin does not see Swipe as simply another category within the existing casino lobby. His ambition is for it to become a platform-level feature: alongside games, live casino and sports, players would find a dedicated Swipe button opening an endless feed personalised around their individual tastes.
“At that point, it is no longer just a collection of games,” Yashin says. “It becomes a new format for consuming casino entertainment, where every swipe brings a new piece of content and a new playable moment.”
